Can Facebook Predict an SG Election?

Probably not.

But it might be fun to compare the results to this chart I’ve compiled, based on who’s friends with who.

sgfacebook3

Why do I subtract 10% at the bottom? Well, it’s an arbitrary amount, I admit — I’m not majoring in statistics. But it’s one way to partially account for people who are part of more than one of the six categories, as well as people who are in one of these but won’t vote.

This tallies up to 3747 votes, which given past participation records sounds like a high number. We’ll see.

But, if Facebook were an accurate indicator (under the assumptions that this is just a popularity contest and college students vote predictably) the result would be a win for the Forbes-Simmons ticket, with 56% of the vote.

However silly all this is, one interesting statistic does come out of it. For both tickets, the candidates recruited very close to 31% of their friends (president’s plus VP’s) to their party’s group. Weird.

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2 Responses to “Can Facebook Predict an SG Election?”

  1. Nicholas Letteri Says:

    This chart does not take into account that most of the candidates’ friends on Facebook are not listed as FAU students. Only 492 of Tiffany’s friends and 425 of Chuck’s friends are FAU students, the rest of their friends on facebook are not able to vote. These numbers make the race a lot closer than predicted above.

  2. True enough–this chart is necessarily rough around the edges, which is why I don’t expect it to predict the results at all. But it will still be an interesting comparison after the fact!

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